The Solomon Islands Meteorological Service has released the Malaria Risk Outlook Bulletin update for North Guadalcanal for the December 2021 period. The Bulletin notes that despite there is no rainfall guidance for North Guadalcanal the period from October to December 2021, the least condition to be expected is “Normal to Above Normal” rainfall.
Based on SCOPIC forecasting tool used by SIMS the expected rainfall will be above 599.1 millimetres for the period. This indicates that preliminary Malaria transmission risk forecast for North Guadalcanal region from period between January to June is likely to be “Below Normal”.
This outlook can be attributed to the La Nina condition now currently established for the Tropical Pacific region. During La Niña events our country will typically experience “Above Normal” rainfall which leads to washing away of mosquito breeding places, thus reducing the risk of malaria transmission.
The Solomon Islands MET service has been working in partnership with the Malaria (Vector Borne) Division of the Ministry of Health and Medical Services for the last 8 years to help them determine how best they can respond to controlling malaria transmission on North Guadalcanal.